Canada Headed for Another Federal Election

Harper's Conservatives Could Fall by as Early as Next Week

Sep 12, 2009 Angela Browne

After earlier threats by the Opposition to dissolve Parliament only to be followed by an agreement by the two main parties to work together, an election is now imminent.

After threatening to call a Summer election on the issue of Employment Insurance reform, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff backed off to agree to work with Harper's newly appointed bi-partisan EI Reform Panel. Shortly thereafter, members of both parties were appointed to work on the issue to come up with an agreed upon plan of reform. After that, Michael Ignatieff disappeared. In late August, Mr Ignatieff suddenly emerged from a caucus meeting in Sudbury, when he boldly announced that he had "lost confidence" in the federal Conservatives and that his party will be supporting a motion for non-confidence at the earliest opportunity when Parliament re-opens in the Fall.

Canadians Do Not Want Yet Another Election

If an election is held in the Fall, it would be the fourth such election in five years, the last of which resulted in a minority government for the Conservatives. Opinion polling over the Summer indicated relatively equal support for both the Liberals and the Conservatives, but on September 3, 2009, Angus Reid published a poll that indicated that 57% of respondents opposed the idea of a Fall election, while perhaps about 32% supported this measure. A federal election would mean a stay in existing economic stimulus measures, which 47% of Canadians support. In contrast, 45% of Canadians are unhappy with the way the federal government is handling the economy. If an election were held at that point, neither the Conservatives or the Liberals would achieve a majority government, even though there appears to be increasing support on the part of Canadians towards having a majority government.

Before the summer began, Ignatieff threatened to force the federal election on the issue of Employment Insurance reform. Unfortunately, despite few measures of improvement taking place to the federal EI program as a result of the panel appointed to examine the issue, this is apparently not a big issue on the minds of Canadians. On September 10, 2009, the Toronto Sun published a poll that shows Canadians are relatively satisfied with the Employment Insurance program, with most confident that if they lost their jobs today that they would be able to collect. It would certainly make a poor choice of an election issue, if the Liberals were to choose a key issue to fight the Conservatives over.

Ignatieff on Campaign Trail Still in Search of an Issue

With the possibility of another federal election being around the corner, Michael Ignatieff has not yet identified an issue that Canadians can be passionate about. When he walked out of caucus to announce his intentions to quit propping up the minority Conservative government, he simply stated he no longer had confidence in Harper's government. He then compared his party to the Conservatives as being "compassionate and tolerant," while the Conservatives sought smaller government and were "mean spirited." Ignatieff has not yet identified a single action that he would do differently to get Canada through the current recession than what is already being done by the federal Conservatives.

Neither the New Democratic Party or the Bloc Quebecois were committed to supporting the Liberals in toppling the government, nor was it clear whether either or both would continue to work with the Conservatives. However, Ignatieff made it clear this time around that he would not be contemplating any coalitions, like the one that almost formed under his predecessor Stephane Dion shortly after the Conservatives filed their first economic statement last fall. This pronouncement was made right after a secret recording was revealed of a partisan speech Harper made that referred to how pushing for a majority Conservative government would prevent another possibility of a coalition between the Liberals, "socialists" (meaning the New Democrats), and the "separatists" (meaning the Bloc Quebecois).

Campaign Advertisements Already on the Air

Despite no election yet being called, it appears almost certain that it will be called shortly. The Conservatives have already put on attack ads against Michael Ignatieff, painting him as "only visiting" and questioning his commitment to this country. In turn, the Liberals have been airing positive ads focusing on Ignatieff, the dream of government, and hopes and dreams of Canadians. Given that a majority of Canadians really do not want another election at this time, it will be difficult to tell who is going to be paying attention.

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